According to the Swedish National Agency for Education's new prognosis, there will be a shortage of 10,600 qualified preschool teachers and teachers by 2038, if no drastic changes occur. This is almost exclusively a shortage of preschool teachers (10,500), which is unexpected considering the decreasing number of births.
We were actually surprised, because with decreasing birth rates, we expected a smaller teacher shortage than the prognosis showed, says Sanna Vent, education counselor at the Swedish National Agency for Education.
Changing profession
Many preschool teachers are retiring, and fewer preschool teachers are being educated than before. However, the Swedish National Agency for Education also sees another trend:
More preschool teachers are leaving preschools for other jobs, says Sanna Vent.
The increase is not large in percentage terms, but since there are many preschool teachers, the departures have a significant impact on the prognosis, she continues.
It is likely that the work environment is a reason why preschool teachers are quitting.
We know that many in preschools, just like in schools, experience high workload and stress. In many preschools, there is a lack of trained staff, which can be a reasonable explanation for why people are leaving.
Anna Olskog, chairperson of the Swedish Teachers' Union, shares this view.
It's too exhausting to be a preschool teacher. There is no time for planning, there are no maximum limits on group sizes, and more and more staff lack relevant education, she says.
A proposal for an investigation into regulating preschool teachers' and teachers' time for teaching and planning will be presented in March, among other things.
Changing school form
When it comes to the other teacher categories, enough are being educated overall, but while more special-, vocational-, and upper-secondary school teachers are needed, there is expected to be a surplus of teachers in leisure-time centers, special educators, and upper-secondary school teachers.
A upper-secondary school teacher can switch to upper-secondary school, but otherwise, qualification-giving education is required to change to another teaching profession.
So even though enough are being educated overall, it is still a major challenge with the shortage of vocational teachers and special teachers, says Sanna Vent.
The Swedish National Agency for Education notes that measures are needed to both attract new and retain existing teachers.
We see that many experience high workload and stress. We see that concerns about threats and violence have increased. Therefore, strengthened work environment efforts are needed in many preschools and schools, says Sanna Vent.
Teacher shortage in 2038: 10,600 teachers, of which 10,500 are preschool teachers.
So many more preschool teachers need to be educated to have the same proportion of qualified preschool teachers in preschools as today. Today, 44 percent of preschool pedagogical staff are preschool teachers.
Shortage also of special teachers, vocational teachers, and subject teachers in upper-secondary school, but a surplus of teachers in leisure-time centers, special educators, and subject teachers in upper-secondary school.
Source: Swedish National Agency for Education
