The situation is uncertain on the financial markets, but also on the real economy – not least in the USA, says Erik Thedéen to journalists after a meeting in the Riksdag's finance committee.
We are now following the development very closely, he adds.
"This is not how it usually looks"
The Swedish Central Bank has, according to Thedéen, ongoing contacts with actors on the financial market and companies "to try to understand what is happening and what decisions are being made".
The trade crisis also means that the Swedish Central Bank has a lot of contacts with international central bank colleagues and with the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Supervisory Authority (FI) in Stockholm.
He describes the trade crisis and the "de facto trade war" that is now unfolding as a unique event.
What is very special about this is that it is caused by one man's signature on a decision. This is not how it usually looks, he says.
It is unequivocally bad for the world economy. It is unequivocally bad for the Swedish economy, he adds.
The stock market crash in itself looks manageable so far. The risk, according to Thedéen, is that indirect disruptions occur in the financial system or risk premiums that create financing and liquidity problems. Then the Swedish Central Bank may need to intervene.
He points, for example, to the risk that real estate companies, funds or hedge funds may have problems handling losses or financing themselves if the crisis becomes prolonged.
With such large movements as we see on the financial markets right now, disruptions can occur, he says.
Difficult to assess the inflation effect
When it comes to growth, he sees an increased risk that the Swedish Central Bank's prognosis from March may need to be revised.
It is quite likely that we will need to change the prognosis, says Thedéen.
But the inflation effect of the Trump tariffs is difficult to assess. Tariffs can create inflation, but if they dampen growth, they can reduce inflation.
He reminds us that since the trade crisis was created by decisions made by Donald Trump and his government, it can be undone just as quickly as it was created.
With a stroke of the pen, this can look much better tomorrow.
No formal meeting with the Financial Stability Council – where the government and FI, as well as the Swedish Central Bank and the National Debt Office, are represented – has yet been scheduled due to the trade crisis, according to Thedéen.
