The first step in the continued decline, by 0.25 percentage points, is expected to be announced on December 19. Step two, equally large, is expected on January 29. This is then expected to be followed by another announcement of a lowered interest rate on March 20.
The probability of this scenario is 100 percent in the pricing.
The market is, according to SEB's compilation, now completely convinced that the Swedish Central Bank will have lowered the benchmark interest rate to 1.75 percent by June, while the probability of another lowering to 1.50 percent at some point during the second half of 2025 is currently 68 percent.
The Swedish Central Bank's own forecast – the so-called interest rate path – points to two lowerings to 2.25 percent by the summer of 2025.
The benchmark interest rate affects the interest rate situation in general and usually has a rapid impact on floating mortgage interest rates.
If the interest rate on a three million kronor mortgage is lowered by 1.25 percentage points, it reduces the interest cost for the borrower by 37,500 kronor per year or 3,125 kronor per month – if one disregards the effects of interest deductions.
