“When (Washington) DC started this war, Putin smiled in the Kremlin,” Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov told The Guardian this weekend.
Russia's oil-dependent war chest has long been depleted, battered by sanctions and low crude prices. Now the Iran war has thrown the global oil market into disarray, with blocked sea lanes, halted supplies from Middle Eastern oil giants and skyrocketing prices as a result.
In the vacuum, Russia – which despite its close alliance with Iran has offered Tehran nothing but condolences and condemnation – stands ready to reap.
The cash register is being filled.
On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that the war had significantly increased demand for Russian energy, insisting that Moscow remained a reliable source of oil and gas.
On the economic side, the war is clearly a win-win for Russia, notes Torbjörn Becker, head of the Eastern Economic Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, and he adds:
Especially in this situation, when they actually had quite limited resources to continue waging the war in Ukraine at the level they have done so far.
Oil exports are Russia's most important source of income, Becker emphasizes. The previously low oil prices put Moscow under severe pressure, which was reflected in Russian tax increases, among other things.
Now prices are rising while oil producers Iran and Venezuela are largely out of the game, which is expected to cause major customer China to increasingly buy Russian oil. Last week, the US Treasury Secretary also announced a month-long sanctions relief to allow Indian refineries to buy Russian oil.
Now Russia will avoid stricter priorities in its own budget and will instead have its coffers replenished by higher oil prices, says Becker.
Critical for Ukraine
The Iran war is also drawing global attention from Ukraine – and is likely to hit Kyiv hard in its ability to defend itself.
Ukraine has long appealed for more American Patriot air defense systems, which are described as superior at shooting down advanced Russian missiles. More Patriot missiles have now been fired in three days in the Middle East than Ukraine has been supplied with in four years of war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed last week.
For Ukraine, the situation is critical, notes EU Defense Chief Andrius Kubilius.
The Americans cannot provide enough missiles to the Gulf countries, their own army and even Ukraine, he said on Friday.
The relationship between Russia and Iran is described as a “strategic partnership.” The relationship is driven by a shared opposition to the West, which has imposed extensive sanctions on both Moscow and Tehran in recent years.
In January 2025, the countries signed a 20-year agreement on deepened cooperation in defense, economy, and energy.
Russia has long been an important partner in Iran's civilian nuclear program. For example, the Iranian Bushehr nuclear power plant was built with Russian technology and is powered by Russian nuclear fuel.
Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used in the war in Ukraine. According to sources including the Financial Times, Russia has in turn sold weapons worth billions of dollars to Iran.
During the war, Russia is also said to have provided Iran with intelligence about American positions in the Middle East, according to the same newspaper.
