On Thursday, one dollar costs approximately 11 kronor, after being up at 11.13 in the morning, which is a new low for the year.
The explanation is not that things are going badly for Sweden, but that the krona is heavily undervalued compared to the dollar, which is overvalued, says SEB's senior economist Robert Bergqvist.
According to Bergqvist, there is no reason to believe in a brightening of the situation in the near future.
We have made the assessment that the scope for the krona to strengthen under 2025 is small, he says.
He means that there are positive aspects to a weak krona, such as Swedish export companies gaining some competitiveness, but that the disadvantages clearly outweigh the benefits when everything that is imported becomes more expensive.
Interest Rate Difference
It would be unfortunate if the inflation specter comes to life again. This could, among other things, mean that the Swedish Central Bank does not proceed with further interest rate cuts and that mortgage rates do not come down as we hope, says Robert Bergqvist.
His hope is that Swedish companies that import goods refrain from raising prices against customers, even if they are under economic pressure.
The American Central Bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), lowered its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday and signaled that there will only be two interest rate cuts next year, instead of the announced four. The message strengthened the dollar compared to other currencies.
Between the USA and Sweden, there is an interest rate difference of two percent. It is clear that it is more attractive to place money where the interest rate is higher, which strengthens the dollar against most currencies, says Bergqvist.
Trump
The krona has lost around ten percent against the dollar this year and the decline accelerated after Donald Trump won the American presidential election in November.
The currency's standing is based much on expectations. No one knows exactly how politics will be shaped with Trump, but he is pursuing a policy that should give a stronger dollar, says Bergqvist.
When the krona loses value against the dollar, it tends to spread. The krona has now also lost against the euro and costs 11.50.
The krona has still held out a bit more against the euro. This is due to the problems that exist in the euro area, primarily the political situation in Germany and France, says Bergqvist.
Corrected: In an earlier version of the text, the interviewee's last name was incorrectly stated in one place.
