Monday to Wednesday looks set to be even more expensive than the prices we saw last week, when there looks to be no wind in Germany, says Johan Sigvardsson.
Nuclear power shut down
The worst affected are electricity customers in electricity area SE4, which includes Skåne, Blekinge, Halland, Kronoberg and Kalmar.
With almost half of Nordic nuclear power shut down, transmission capacity between electricity areas is being throttled. This makes southern Sweden even more dependent on electricity imports from neighbouring countries, where sky-high gas prices are pushing up electricity prices.
On the Nord Pool electricity exchange, the average price in electricity area SE4 rose on Friday to 3.20 kronor per kilowatt hour. This brings the average price so far in November in the area to almost 3 kronor - easily the highest so far this year.
This compares with October, when the average price in SE4 of 1.57 kronor per kilowatt hour was a new high for the year.
Electricity area SE3, which includes the major cities of Stockholm and Gothenburg, is also affected. But north of the Dalälven, in electricity areas SE1 and SE2, the price picture is completely different. There, the average price so far in November is 17 and 11 öre per kilowatt hour, respectively, according to Nord Pool. There is a large surplus in the electricity system, which is pushing prices down.
Several nuclear power plants are due to restart in November after unexpectedly long periods of maintenance and repairs. The electricity supply is then expected to increase in southern Sweden, which will have a dampening effect on prices in SE3 and SE4.
Gas prices will then fall
However, the futures market continues to point to high electricity prices in southern Sweden. It indicates an average of SEK 1.70 per kilowatt hour for the period December to February in SE4, while prices in SE3 are expected to average around SEK 1.30 per kilowatt hour, according to the futures market.
For SE1 and SE2, futures prices for December to February are around 65 öre per kilowatt hour.
The high gas prices on the continent are closely linked to supply disruptions resulting from the Iran war. If attempts to broker peace between Iran and the US succeed, gas prices could fall back relatively quickly - even if gas deliveries from the Persian Gulf take a long time to reach Europe.
If you know that supply will improve later on, you can use up what you have in stock today, and then gas prices will fall, says Sigvardsson.
What do you think?