Sweden's gross national product (GNP) increased by 0.9 percent for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Statistical Central Bureau's (SCB) preliminary GNP indicator.
The increase was lower than the market's expectations, which averaged 1.4 percent according to Bloomberg's compilation.
Since it is a first quick calculation of GNP, the figures should be taken with a pinch of salt, according to Torbjörn Isaksson, chief analyst at Nordea. But it indicates that the Swedish economy seems to continue to go slowly.
Which means that the economy has been standing still and stamping in more or less the same place throughout the first half of the year, he says.
Increases pressure on the Swedish Central Bank
Isaksson suspects that it is primarily the domestic parts of the economy that have gone slowly. If the figures are confirmed in August, when the more thorough calculations come, it increases the pressure on the Swedish Central Bank to act and lower the interest rate. But Nordea maintains its forecast that the Swedish Central Bank leaves the interest rate unchanged.
It's about the fact that inflation is a bit higher than what the Swedish Central Bank has calculated with. The ECB does not seem to be in a hurry to lower the interest rate, says Isaksson.
He does not think that today's figures are worrying, but that it is "a disappointment".
I think there are conditions for a recovery of the Swedish economy.
"Low speed"
"The figure confirms that we have low speed in the Swedish economy. And now high tariffs on exports to the USA are added, which will gradually find their way into the statistics", says Alexandra Stråberg, chief economist at Länsförsäkringar in a comment.
She also notes that inflation has increased recently, which means that the Swedish Central Bank may be forced to be more cautious with interest rate cuts.
"We believe that the interest rate will be lowered again later this year, but the economy would have benefited from even more", says Alexandra Stråberg.
