The terrorist threat against Sweden remains at a three on a five-point scale, according to NCT.
But the threat has shifted - from traditional terrorist organizations such as IS and al-Qaeda to being part of a broader security threat where everything from the war in Ukraine to the situation in Gaza has an impact.
Events in the outside world are used to motivate and mobilize people for various activities, including serious acts of violence, says Ahn-Za Hagström, head of NCT.
The threats overlap and targets can be attacked by several different actors for different reasons.
Violence driving force
People who spread violent propaganda online are identified as the main factor driving the threat in NCT's full-year assessment for 2026. This risks inspiring others, not least young people, who can quickly become radicalized.
Ahn-Za Hagström points to the 19-year-old who was recently convicted of terrorist plots against a festival in Stockholm. In that case, his consumption of violent propaganda stood out.
It wasn't about the entire propaganda film but exactly the part that was violent.
Violence seems to have become a driving force in itself for many actors, according to NCT.
We believe that violence is a primary driving force in many of the cases we become aware of.
The fact that the actors still refer to a terrorist organization is interpreted more as a way to gain influence, rather than because they are ideologically convinced.
Ideology becomes like an overcoat you put on, but you don't have the ideological depth that we saw many years ago, says Ahn-Za Hagström.
It also contributes to the fact that personal motives behind attacks or assassination plots have become more common.
In almost all cases that we receive information about, there seems to be an additional component: personal reasons and individual driving forces, and possibly also a mental illness.
Election year effects
The terror threat was lowered from a four to a three in May last year. That level is expected to hold over time, according to Ahn-Za Hagström. Sweden is still not as prominent a target for terrorist attacks as it was in 2023.
However, as we enter an election year and an election campaign, activities from extremist environments may increase.
We know from past experience that different types of issues are raised and different interests are pitted against each other. This is something that violent extremists and terrorists could take advantage of.
But we do not see that the election as such affects the terrorist threat.
The terrorist threat level remains at an elevated level, a three on a five-point scale.
This means that a terrorist attack could occur.
The main terrorist threat to Sweden continues to be lone individuals, either violent Islamists or violent right-wing extremists.
Assassinations are likely to be carried out using simple means such as stabbing or slashing.
NCT is a permanent working group with personnel from FRA, Must and Säpo.
Source: NCT's full-year assessment 2026
