The election forecast from SVT says the probability that the opposition parties will win the most seats when the count is complete is 99.9 percent.
It is clear that Tidö will not win a majority, there is a one-in-a-thousand chance according to our simulations. It is essentially decided, says mathematician and economist Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, who developed the forecast model in collaboration with SVT.
Vote counting was underway
On Wednesday evening, the votes from the so-called catchment districts were counted. Meanwhile, one mandate went back and forth between the S and SD, while the opposition's lead over the Tidö parties remained intact.
The last mandate, whether it will be 176 or 175 for the red-greens, is not certain. And it is possible that we will have to wait until the final vote count to know for sure, says Karreskog Rehbinder.
Nooshi Dadgostar is declaring victory - she writes on Instagram that the red-greens are winning the election and that the Left Party is increasing the most of all parties.
"Lost its government mandate"
Center Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist writes on X that it is a close election and that all parties need to respect it.
"If the forecast holds true, the Tidö parties have lost their government mandate and Sweden has said no to SD ministers," she writes.
Thand Ringqvist also believes that "solutions across old bloc boundaries" need to be found and that the result does not indicate a "political left turn".
TT has contacted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M), who does not want to comment on SVT's forecast, citing that the votes have not yet been counted.
