The election forecast from SVT says the probability that the opposition parties will win the most seats when the vote count is complete is 99.9 percent.
It is clear that Tidö will not secure a majority, there is a one in a thousand chance according to our simulations. It is essentially settled, says mathematician and economist Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, who developed the forecast model in collaboration with SVT.
On Wednesday evening, votes from the so-called catchment districts were counted. In the meantime, one mandate went back and forth between the S and SD, while the opposition's lead over the Tidö parties remained intact.
The last mandate, whether it will be 176 or 175 for the red-greens, is not certain. And it is possible that we need to wait until the final vote count to know for sure, says Karreskog Rehbinder.
Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist writes on X that it is a close election and that all parties need to respect it.
"If the forecast holds true, the Tidö parties have lost their government mandate and Sweden has said no to SD ministers," she writes.
Thand Ringqvist also believes that "solutions across old bloc boundaries" need to be found and that the result does not indicate a "political left turn".
TT has contacted Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M), who does not want to comment on SVT's forecast, citing that the votes have not been counted.
