It has now been almost three years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Since then, the Western world has introduced several sanctions packages intended to hit the Russian economy.
However, how well this has succeeded has been questioned. From a Russian perspective, a picture is being painted of an economy that is largely unaffected, with low unemployment and growing growth.
Torbjörn Becker, head of the Eastern European Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, however, paints a different picture.
What we know is that we cannot trust the Russian figures, and we are pretty sure that things are going much worse than they show, he says.
Higher inflation
This is also the conclusion of the report that Torbjörn Becker has co-authored on behalf of the National Institute of Economic Research and the government. The conclusion is, among other things, that Russia's inflation is likely to be around 20 percent per annum rather than the 9.1 percent reported.
The incorrect picture is incredibly dangerous, notes Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson.
One must not be naive, this war is not just about the war on the ground but also a propaganda war. That's why I ordered this report. When presenting figures, one must also tell about the weaknesses in them, otherwise, one is doing Russia's and Putin's bidding, she says to TT.
Russia's economy is largely supported by the country's oil and gas exports. It is also here that the outside world can do the most damage, notes Torbjörn Becker:
If these are cut off, Russia will eventually be forced to make even more difficult choices, such as raising taxes or cutting pensions to finance the war.
Krigströtthet
A question mark, however, is whose endurance is longest, Ukraine's or Russia's. Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, notes that sanctions take an extremely long time to take effect.
There is always an exaggerated notion about sanctions. I have always been skeptical about them having immediate effects, which they practically never do, he says.
But do you see any hope for an end to the war in the near future?
I can hope for it, but not be certain. There is war fatigue in Ukraine, but also in Russia, and it is starting to show in the economy. It's not a collapse, but it's noticeable.
