Government Predicts Recession to Continue Through 2026

Working people will get more in their wallet with next year's budget, according to the government. The budget contains large tax cuts and Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (The Moderate Party) hopes that it will increase future confidence and break the recession.

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Government Predicts Recession to Continue Through 2026
Photo: Anders Humlebo/TT

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We want this to give a boost, wind under the wings to look positively at the future, says Svantesson.

Many have struggled to make their economy work.

One purpose of the investments in tax cuts and households is to try to get the economy going and get out of the recession.

Tax Cuts

The budget for the election year 2026 includes a total of investments of nearly 80 billion kronor and is based on an agreement between the government and the Sweden Democrats. A large part of the money is spent on various tax cuts - including halved VAT on food, reduced income tax, reduced tax for pensioners and those with sickness and activity benefits, as well as reduced electricity tax.

Another thing that will be noticed by families with small children is that the maximum fee in preschool will be reduced.

For companies, it will become cheaper to hire young people, but Svantesson also expects that households' more filled wallets will benefit companies when consumption increases. On the other hand, there will be no general reduction in corporate tax, which the business community has desired.

I understand that they want more. I would gladly lower the corporate tax next term. We are not finished, says Svantesson.

The opposition has called the large reform space of 80 billion for election pork.

It will be interesting to see if they will put less in the reform space. It remains to be seen what they think of doing instead, says Svantesson.

The opposition parties will present their shadow budgets in the coming weeks, and then it will be shown whether they will be more frugal.

Unemployment

The hope is that the economic wheels will start rolling faster again.

The problem with this recession is that it is prolonged, says Svantesson and points particularly to the fact that unemployment risks becoming entrenched.

We still see an unemployment rate that is at too high levels.

In addition to the 80 billion, the government is investing approximately 50 billion kronor, outside the so-called reform space, in defense and support for Ukraine.

The government expects the recession to persist next year and a bit into 2027, but the turnaround can begin as early as next year. But Svantesson emphasizes that the Swedish economy is strongly affected by what happens in the world, for example, when it comes to tariffs.

One thing I've learned is that the outside world is very shaky, but we do what we can to increase domestic demand, says Svantesson.

Sweden's GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 percent this year, to increase by 3.0 percent next year and 2.5 percent in 2027.

Unemployment is expected to decrease to 8.3 percent next year, from 8.7 percent this year. During 2027, unemployment is expected to fall to 7.8 percent, according to the SCB's way of measuring.

Source: The Government

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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