The police in Finland have boarded a foreign cargo ship – suspected to be part of Russia's shadow fleet – after the sabotage of the Estlink 2 power cable and several data cables.
According to Liwång, two factors point to the Russian shadow fleet.
The ship that has been stopped in the Gulf of Finland is uninsured and has unclear ownership. It could be a way to circumvent sanctions since it operates outside normal maritime laws, says Liwång.
Circumventing sanctions
After sanctions against Russia, similar ships are increasingly being used for export.
They are increasingly carrying cargo from Russian ports. This has been identified as a way for Russia to circumvent control of exports, for example, of oil products that are under sanctions.
Last year, the Finnish police identified the Chinese-flagged ship Newnew Polar Bear as responsible for a leak on a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia.
As recently as December, Swedish police boarded the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3. This was after the ship was identified as interesting in the investigation into the suspected sabotage of a data cable between Sweden and Finland.
They have not been able to prove sabotage in any of the cases. The general security situation points to Russia, but that does not mean they have been able to prove it or that Russia is actually behind it. It would in principle require having some kind of intelligence information about an order.
Creating uncertainty
Regardless of who is behind it, the primary purpose is not to destroy critical infrastructure.
The effects on our societies are relatively small. It is likely a way to create uncertainty, political unrest, and divisions in the affected countries.
So far, Liwång believes there is no major reason for citizens to feel anxious.
I perceive that countries around the Baltic Sea have decided to be more resolute. They stopped the latest ship and forced it into Finnish waters. This deters ships and crews.
