After lunch on Friday, astrophysicist Mads Skakke Fredslund at Aarhus University says the latest calculations indicate an impact in the Pacific Ocean.
"It's a launch vehicle the Chinese used to send something into space," he tells the Ritzau news agency.
According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the first stage of the Chinese rocket model ZQ 3 is falling toward Earth. It will reach the atmosphere on Friday afternoon, but when it will hit is unclear.
Breakup
The Civil Defense Agency warns that there is a small risk of falling space debris in southern Sweden. This applies in particular to Skåne, Blekinge, southern Småland and the Baltic Sea coastal municipalities.
"The risk is small and the probability of damage is very low, but cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is good to be aware of the situation," the authority writes.
Johan Köhler, head of department for research and development at the Swedish Space Agency, explains that the launch vehicle, weighing eleven tons and measuring 12 meters long, will break up in the atmosphere and that most of the debris will burn up.
"But with such large objects, there may be parts big enough that they don't have time to burn up and then they land on the ground," he says.
However, the likelihood of anyone being harmed is minimal, according to Köhler.
"There is a greater risk of getting into a traffic accident when leaving your home than of being hit by this space junk."
57th parallel
After re-entry, the debris will have time to circle the Earth once, he continues.
"We know that it cannot fall north of the 57th parallel, which passes roughly by Gothenburg, Jönköping and part of Gotland. However, parts can fall anywhere on Earth south of the 57th parallel, and most likely in one of the world's oceans."
According to Johan Köhler, no aviation authority has issued a warning or closed its airspace.
