Christian Kopfer notes that Russia is one of the world's three largest oil producers. And if you limit Russia's ability to get oil out on the world market, it means significantly higher oil prices.
And that's something the Trump administration absolutely does not want. Trump has talked himself warm about lower oil prices, says Kopfer, commodity analyst at Handelsbanken.
Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia are three NATO countries that still buy Russian oil, according to AP.
But it's a world market for oil, so if they don't buy from Russia, they have to buy from someone else. The world could decide not to buy Russian oil at all, but then you have to accept significantly higher oil prices, says Kopfer.
"A bit conspiratorial"
According to him, such sanctions would drive up oil prices "considerably, maybe $10-20 per barrel". And somewhere there he finds an opening to think that it's paradoxically exactly what Trump wants.
What happens in the short term is that oil prices rise sharply and then the OPEC countries will try to compensate and then they will release what they have left in reserve. And that will also give incentives for the Yankees - the land-based shale production will take off. Drilling will take off in that situation and then oil prices will go down again.
So if you think a bit conspiratorially, you could imagine that Trump wants such a situation, because it benefits American oil producers and thus the US in the long run.
"Step forward"
Robert Bergqvist, senior economist at SEB, says that Trump's latest move can be "a step forward to reach the negotiating table". According to him, the latest statements are about showing Russia that one is not satisfied and constantly trying to find ways to worsen the war economy for Russia.
There will be some countries that will have a hard time standing up, but for every country that takes the step and stops its import of energy from Russia, it's still a step in the right direction.
Robert Bergqvist says that of course, it's not good that the sanctions are conditional, but says it may be necessary.
These sanctions are not powerful if you still have countries that choose not to impose sanctions or to continue importing energy.
