A first meeting between Ukraine and the invading country Russia in three years is intended to be held on Thursday, with the US as a monitoring third party.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is traveling to Ankara, the capital of Turkey, to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and he is ready to travel to Istanbul on Thursday. But he will not attend a meeting unless Russian President Vladimir Putin participates.
Russia waited until the last minute to announce who will represent the country in potential talks, and the message will come "when Putin deems it necessary" according to the Kremlin.
Cards close to the chest
The parties are thus keeping their cards close to their chest in the diplomatic maneuvers reminiscent of the card game Svarte Petter, according to Professor Emeritus Peter Wallensteen at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University. A direct reason is the US, which is threatening to withdraw if nothing happens.
In some way, the US has gained a central role. Both Ukraine and Russia want the US on their side as much as possible. It's probably that assessment that will decide whether they meet or not – if they believe it will benefit their relationship with the US, rather than what the settlement will be for Ukraine.
Wallensteen notes that Ukraine has been able to move forward its positions.
Zelensky's hand in the card game has been strengthened since the famous meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House.
Zelensky's hand in the card game has also been strengthened by knowing that Ukraine has solid support from Europe.
New cards
Putin, in turn, has strengthened his hand through "certain successes on the battlefield".
Trump, who is on a tour of the region, has said that he may come to Istanbul if he believes "things can happen" – which is unlikely. The US will be represented by envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff.
Wallensteen continues to reason on game theory and wonders if new cards in the game can change the entire game.
If something happens militarily, it could have an effect. If some additional actor does something, like China, it could also have an effect – but it won't happen within the 24-hour period we are talking about now.
