A Russian soldier places a flag on the small island of Karantynnyj. In the video published by Vladimir Saldo, Russian-installed governor in occupied Cherson, it is stated that Russian forces have crossed the Dnepr river, suppressed Ukrainian counterattacks, secured a bridgehead, mined access to the island and begun organizing themselves for a lasting presence.
But it is not true, according to an analysis from the think tank Institute for the study of war (ISW). The day after Saldo published his clip, a Ukrainian brigade released video material from the same location. In that film, Ukrainian forces are seen moving freely on Karantynnyj. The island is quiet and no Russian forces are seen on the western bank of the Dnepr, the brigade states according to ISW.
The think tank describes it as Russian psychological warfare intended to portray "limited Russian sabotage and reconnaissance operations" as the start of a Russian offensive to cross the Dnepr and capture the region.
"The Kremlin likely intends to convince the Western world, the EU, and Ukraine that a Russian victory is inevitable, so that Ukraine should submit to Russia's demands to cede territory and that allies should stop supporting Ukraine", they write.
