At this point, Russia appears as the black knight challenging an opponent to a sword duel in the medieval parody "Monty Python and the Holy Grail," says Martin Kragh, senior researcher at the Center for East European Studies at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs.
The knight first has his arms cut off by his opponent but insists that it is "just a flesh wound." Then his legs are cut off.
So he lies there on the ground and shouts to the other knight: "Come back, and I will bite you to death," Kragh says.
These are quite large demands from Russia in relation to what its military, economic and political capabilities actually are.
Military stalemate
The front line in eastern Ukraine is largely at a standstill in an exceptionally deadly war of attrition. Swarms of drones are thwarting attempts to advance across frozen fields. Neither side is believed to have the military capability to break the stalemate.
In the US-led peace talks, Russia is demanding to retain occupied territories, but also that Ukraine give up the last part of the Donbas region where Ukrainian defense forces are holding firm. Several meetings have been held and more are planned.
"As far as I can tell, Russia's position has not changed in the year that Trump has tried to mediate," Kragh says, "but it is not necessarily the US's fault."
I believe there is a more fundamental problem that no diplomat could solve: that the aggressor, Russia, is not prepared to compromise on its demands.
A goal on the road
Ukraine has been more willing to compromise, but conquering more Ukrainian territory is only a minor goal for Russia, according to Martin Kragh.
The Kremlin continues to make statements, including from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, that the Russian demands that preceded the major invasion of Ukraine remain. In practice, they mean that NATO forces should be withdrawn to borders that applied at the end of the Cold War - and that Russia should be allowed to exercise power over states in its vicinity, says Kragh.
"You can see it as Russia having produced a wish list for Santa, but it is also a reflection of their perception and will," the analyst says.
And if you imagine a hypothetical scenario where Russia gets its way, Sweden and Finland, just like Ukraine and other countries in Europe, would lose some of their sovereignty.
On December 17, 2021 – as Russian forces massed on a large scale on the Ukrainian border – the Kremlin presented two lists of demands, one to NATO and one to the United States.
The demands were described by the Russian side as absolutely crucial for the common security situation – but were received as an ultimatum in which Russia demanded power over sovereign states in its surroundings.
The demands stated that NATO would not be allowed to accept Ukraine or other countries as new members. They also stated that military forces would not be allowed to be deployed in NATO countries that joined the alliance after 1997, which would include a large part of Eastern Europe. Since the demands were formulated, Finland and Sweden have also joined.
The US was urged to agree to a mutual guarantee not to do anything that "undermines the other party’s core security interests."
The demands were rejected. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
