Russian forces on the front line in Ukraine are in disarray after manufacturer SpaceX, at Ukraine's behest, cut off access to the US internet system. A Ukrainian military source told Politico that the effect was to at least temporarily slow down the Russian offensive. Another military source described the units as blindsided.
Russian military bloggers are also reporting confusion at the front, with one claiming that nine out of ten units they are in contact with have lost their internet connection.
Countermeasures were lacking
It may sound strange that Russian forces have become dependent on American technology. But the Russians are pragmatic, according to Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the think tank Chatham House. Starlink is difficult to jam and has a long range.
It exists, it works, and it does what they want it to do. And because there were no effective countermeasures, they were able to exploit Starlink in exactly the same way they previously used Ukrainian SIM cards to operate on the Ukrainian mobile network.
Starlink is not allowed to be sold or used by Russia due to US sanctions, but Russian forces have obtained the technology via third countries.
It has been used to allow front-line units to communicate, and drones have reportedly been equipped with Starlink antennas to be controlled in first-person view, including when a passenger train was attacked at the end of January.
After pressure from Ukraine, SpaceX implemented the solution of shutting down all Starlink terminals in Ukraine that are not registered on a Ukrainian platform. On Thursday, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov wrote on X that the hastily cobbled together solution is working.
Expert: Timing matters
Russian forces have clearly been aware of the risks of Starlink.
But because there is still no Russian equivalent and there is no widespread tactical command system at the absolute forefront, the Russians have continued to rely on commercial solutions, Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian military at the think tank CNA, told Forbes.
According to Giles, the shutdown appears to be having a significant impact on Russian efforts.
But of course, this is just part of an ongoing technical showdown. Russia will soon find a solution to continue operating.
