If Vladimir Putin does not attend, it may be a first step in poking holes in Trump's idea of how peace should proceed, notes Magnus Christiansson, lecturer and researcher at the Defense University.
Shortly after the summit between the US President, his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyj and a number of European leaders at the White House, the statements and interpretations are pouring in. Trump, who on Friday also met the Russian leader Putin in Alaska, calls the negotiations "historic" and "very good" and announces that he has called Putin to arrange a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyj.
Testing "the whole idea"
But Putin has not confirmed his participation and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says cryptically that such a meeting requires "extensive preparations". At the same time, Switzerland is offering immunity to the war-crime-accused Putin if a summit were to be held there. Hungary is also saying it is ready to host the meeting.
The meeting would be important on several levels, not least because European leaders believe it is a prerequisite for moving forward with the security guarantees for Ukraine that were also discussed at the White House.
First having a "bilateral" meeting between Putin and Zelenskyj tests the whole idea. The work on security guarantees, if it does not involve membership in Nato, will not continue if there is no will for peace in Russia, notes Christiansson.
He emphasizes that only three concrete things were decided at the White House: Firstly, that the US and Europe will move forward with security guarantees. Secondly, that a time will be found for a bilateral meeting between Zelenskyj and Putin, where territorial issues and other matters related to Russia's war of aggression will be discussed. And thirdly, that the leaders, after that meeting and when they have reached an agreement, will have a three-party meeting with Donald Trump.
How to guarantee?
In a Europe where several countries have warned of future Russian mobilization and threats, and where leaders like France's Emmanuel Macron call Putin "a predator", security guarantees and similar cooperation are of high importance. But the talks in the US are also puzzling.
For many of us, security guarantees are equivalent to Nato's Article 5. Trump says mysteriously that he wants to be involved and provide security guarantees – but that Ukraine will not be allowed to join Nato, notes Christiansson.
At the same time, (Italian Prime Minister) Giorgia Meloni has raised the idea of a kind of partner network with Ukraine. But it sounds like a watered-down version of what already exists in the UN Charter, namely the principle of collective security.
