The economy is overheating
In Russia's war economy, the military sector has been inflated like a balloon, driving inflation higher than officially admitted.
The Central Bank has lowered the key interest rate under heavy pressure from President Putin, but it is not expected to help.
The high oil price gives Russia some respite, but no more. The budget deficit for the first quarter is higher than the projected deficit for the whole of 2026. Low unemployment is directly linked to the fact that a large part of the workforce has died in war.
Putin says he is following everything closely and demanding action. Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the nominally opposition Communist Party, has warned that Russia risks “a new 1917” - referring to the Russian Revolution and the fall of the Tsarist regime.
Oppression chafes
The Kremlin has lowered a digital iron curtain on the Russian web, where major platforms have been banned and the authorities have full visibility.
Criticism is heard higher up in the power apparatus, among affected business owners and in layers of the population where many tend to turn a blind eye to politics.
"Vladimir Vladimirovich, we are afraid of you," says celebrity influencer Viktoria Bonya in a video clip directed at President Putin that has received millions of views.
She raises a series of domestic issues - among them mass slaughter of livestock that has sparked peasant protests in southern Siberia, and criticizes the handling of floods in Dagestan - and has caused an uproar that has forced the Kremlin to go on the defensive.
For the first time in several years, trust in the president has fallen in surveys by the state Russian institute VTsIOM, which is usually taken as an indication.
Putin has begun to distance himself from the restrictions and online censorship. On Monday, he placed the responsibility on the State Duma, urging its members not to “focus only on prohibitory laws.”
All this is temporary and will pass, he insisted at the time.
No peace in sight
At least 213,000 Russian soldiers have died in the invasion. In addition, an unknown number have been wounded, and there are hundreds of thousands injured.
On the front line in Ukraine, Russian forces have begun to lose more ground than they are gaining. More soldiers are dying than the authorities are recruiting.
Ukraine launches major counterattacks into Russia. “Poison rain” falls on the Black Sea city of Tuapse as another oil facility is set on fire.
Despite a more accommodating mediator in US President Donald Trump, Russia has not progressed further with its high-profile demands.
Opinion polls, which should be interpreted with some caution, indicate that more Russians want peace.
Vladimir Putin has ruled Russia for just over 26 years, longer than the longest-ruling Soviet leaders Stalin and Brezhnev. Under an increasingly autocratic rule, he has long been likened to a modern-day “tsar.”
The president's communication also follows a historical tradition: "The good tsar and the evil boyars."
The autocrats of the former Tsarist Russia portrayed themselves as protectors of the people. When there was positive news, they took credit as benefactors, and when there was negative news, it was said to be someone else's fault, often the boyars (nobility) and completely beyond the Tsar's knowledge.
Vladimir Putin routinely blames bad things on people further down the system: politicians, individual officials or oligarchs. Every year he holds televised question-and-answer sessions where individual Russians are allowed to come forward with questions and complaints, to which Putin responds with promises that those responsible will be held accountable.
