North Sea oil (Brent) is expected to rise a few dollars, up to $100 per barrel again, and the increased uncertainty surrounding the Iran war is also strengthening the dollar, according to Christian Kopfer at the Norwegian investment bank Arctic Securities.
"There will be a certain increase. It is absolutely reasonable after the announcement that the delegations from the US and Iran have left the negotiating table without an agreement."
As long as the warring countries do not violate the two-week ceasefire that began on Wednesday and launch new attacks, price increases are still expected to be limited, according to Kopfer.
"But if the war starts again, we're basically back to square one."
Should there be new major attacks that destroy more of the energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf, it could become significantly more expensive to fill up the tank in Sweden, he warns. As recently as a month ago, oil cost almost $120.
According to Kopfer, historical patterns show that gasoline and diesel consumers in Sweden are relatively insensitive to price increases. But he does not rule out that it could become difficult to obtain fuel.
"Now there's an oil shortage. The aviation industry has already had to cut back."
The Iran war has essentially stopped deliveries of around a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz - where around 20 million barrels of oil products are normally shipped per day.
North Sea oil (Brent) closed trading at $95.20 per barrel on Friday. Trading will resume late Sunday evening local time in Sweden.
The price level is just over 35 percent higher than before the US and Israel began the bombing war against Iran on February 28.
At its peak during the Iran war, in early March, oil prices were almost $120 per barrel. This compares with the peaks after the full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 of almost $125 per barrel.
The historic peak of $147.50 per barrel dates back to July 2008, when demand in China had skyrocketed and global oil production had not kept pace.
