In political science, it is well known that voters punish sitting governments. It is difficult to be re-elected and it costs to govern, as the saying goes. This applies especially if the economy is poor and if it is a right-wing coalition.
All of this is, of course, a concern for the government. In that sense, you can be worried, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
The Election Research Program, which makes ongoing compilations of all opinion polls, showed at the beginning of October that the opposition's four parties led with 52.1 percent over the Tidö parties' 45.8 percent. Then, The Liberals fell below the parliamentary threshold and the Christian Democrats' figure was rounded up to 4 percent.
Feel good atmosphere
The opposition's lead is large, but there are examples of governments that have been able to turn and win from worse starting positions a year before an election. Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson points to Fredrik Reinfeldt's government, which even managed to achieve a better result in 2010 than in 2006.
But it is easier said than done. Ideally, a kind of feel good atmosphere should emerge in the economy.
It is inflation that seems to be the most damaging for sitting governments. The voters' feeling that things are just getting more expensive, says Ekengren Oscarsson.
Another concern is that The Liberals risk being thrown out of parliament. During the term, the party has even had difficulty getting above 3 percent. In previous elections, primarily moderate voters have cast tactical votes for The Liberals and helped the party over the parliamentary threshold. It is likely that they will do so again to help The Moderate Party retain power.
Unless they assess that the risk is great that the SD leader Jimmie Åkesson will become Prime Minister, Ekengren Oscarsson believes. Therefore, The Moderate Party should put their foot down, so that there is no doubt about who is number one.
The more Jimmie Åkesson promotes himself as a candidate for prime minister, the lower the probability that there will be a majority for Tidö, he says.
New black?
Swedish elections tend to be even, so if the pattern holds, the opposition's lead will shrink as the election approaches.
It is very convenient to sit in opposition and just let the government wear itself down in terms of public opinion, says Ekengren Oscarsson.
He believes that the opposition, led by the Social Democrats, has the most reason to worry about the question of how they will be able to put together a government alternative. And he reminds us that the Tidö parties secured their victory only at the last minute last time.
It happened in the last ten days. It is very unusual for it to be that way, but if it is the new black, it can happen again, he says.
