AI investments are fuelling growth, according to the OECD. But supply disruptions in the energy sector due to the Iran war are pushing up consumer prices and business costs - and long-term interest rates have risen to 15-year highs in many countries.
In addition, the OECD highlights tariffs and trade barriers and the weather phenomenon El Niño as risk factors.
“A faster normalization of energy markets would dampen inflationary pressures and support economic activity, while new or more prolonged disruptions could lead to both higher inflation and weaker growth,” writes the OECD.
Facts: The OECD forecast in brief
Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent this year, down from 3.4 percent last year, according to OECD economists. And inflation is set to rise to 4.1 percent for the G20 countries - the largest economies - from 3.4 percent last year.
The growth forecast for next year is lowered by 0.1 percentage points compared with the OECD's June forecast, to 3.0 percent. The inflation forecast for the G20 countries next year is also raised by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6 percent.
Growth in the United States is projected at 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2027, while growth in the eurozone is expected to be 1.0 percent in both years. China's growth is forecast to slow to 4.2 percent next year, down from this year's projected growth of 4.5 percent.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook “Weathering Successive Shocks”, September 2026
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