Lowering the key interest rate in 2025 and rising market interest rates have narrowed the gap between variable and fixed mortgage rates. This creates a good situation for those who want to fix their mortgage.
If it feels better to have a bond, it is probably not that expensive right now to insure it, says Christina Sahlberg.
But historically, it has often paid off to have a variable interest rate instead of a fixed one.
If you have good margins in your finances and can handle interest rates varying over time, then there is no really strong reason to fix the interest rate, says SBAB's chief economist Robert Boije.
Risks 2026
At the same time, there are several factors that could push up mortgage rates next year. While the Swedish Central Bank is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at the current level for some time to come, market rates are at risk of moving even more.
There is uncertainty surrounding global long-term interest rates that could affect the level of longer-term fixed interest rates, says Robert Boije.
Many countries' shaky public finances, large defense investments and a chaotic USA can drive up market interest rates. Bank margins can also change. Robert Boije highlights that many banks compensate for low mortgage margins by having low interest rates on savings and salary accounts.
One could imagine a situation where savings rates rise slightly, but then the banks would instead have to raise the margins on mortgages.
Don't try
Despite several factors that could drive up mortgage rates in 2026, both economists believe that it is not possible to find the "perfect" time to lock in your mortgage rate.
There's no point in trying, says Christina Sahlberg, adding:
You just have to do what feels best for you. Trying to time the market and predict what will happen is really, really hard.
