On Thursday, the Venezuelan opposition politician was not mentioned in the preliminary tips. But then something happened.
During the night to Friday, the probability that María Corina Machado would be awarded the peace prize on the prediction market Polymarket changed from 3.74 percent to 72.9 percent. Several people are said to have made a profit by betting money on María Corina Machado – including a newly started account on Polymarket, which is said to have earned around half a million kronor.
This smells burnt. It is almost a hundred percent certain that someone has leaked, says Nordea's Norwegian investment manager Robert Næss to Dagens Næringsliv.
Nobel Committee Secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken tells Aftenposten that "it is too early to be sure that it is a leak", but adds:
But this is something we will now investigate.
The Nobel Committee's chairman Jørgen Watne Frydnes, however, dismisses the speculation about an "insider job".
I do not think that there have ever been any leaks in the history of the prize, so I can never imagine that, he says to NTB.
According to Kristian Berg Harpviken, it is only a "small handful" of people who knew that María Corina Machado would be awarded the peace prize.
