Although there are risks linked to a troubled external environment, Sweden's economic situation is expected to improve.
Nordea forecasts GDP growth of 3.1 percent in 2026, while households are starting to open their wallets more. Consumption is expected to approach pre-pandemic levels, as household debt has fallen significantly over the past five years.
Positive development
Nordea sees positive developments in all eight regions it has surveyed.
The Swedish economy is now emerging from recession and entering a mild boom. If you look at the main barometer indicator for the different regions, they are all above normal, says Anna Westlund, senior economist at Nordea.
The increased purchasing power is particularly noticeable in southern Sweden, partly thanks to Danish households crossing over to Malmö, Nordea writes in its report.
Another factor is investment in defence, which is taking place not only in southern Sweden but in several other parts of the country.
Regardless of what constellation we will see, there will be investment in defence in both Sweden and the rest of the world, says Anna Westlund about the ongoing government negotiations.
It is a structural change, and companies expect strong demand for a long time to come.
Improved outlook
At the same time, the bank sees an improved situation in several of the country's regions. Småland is described as having seen headwinds turn into tailwinds, with the furniture industry, among other things, recovering from previous low levels. However, skills shortages are a challenge, as the population has fallen in several counties.
Brighter times are also in sight in northern Sweden, which in recent years has been marked, among other things, by Northvolt's bankruptcy. Industry in Upper Norrland is expected to benefit, among other things, from the krona's recent weakening, Nordea writes.
