Currently, investment decisions for wind power are close to zero, says Anton Johansson, analysis manager at Green Power Sweden.
During three of the four quarters of last year, not a single order was placed for wind turbines. Interest has not been this low since the early days of wind power. So far, wind power is expanding based on older investments, but in a couple of years, new turbines will likely be scarce.
Higher risk
In addition to low electricity prices that make profitability calculations difficult, the industry points to politics and regulation as the biggest source of uncertainty.
Investors and companies in Sweden face significantly higher political and regulatory risk, says Johansson.
The fact that nuclear power receives huge government subsidies undermines a level playing field, according to the wind power industry.
In Sweden, nobody is willing to invest, while a lot of wind power continues to be built in Europe and globally.
We're now also seeing some companies choosing to leave Sweden, says Anton Johansson.
Excess
But electricity prices have been very low. And Sweden has record exports.
Isn't it the case that we have too much electricity production?
"It's clear we currently have a surplus. But what they don't take into account is that we have very ambitious electrification goals," says Anton Johansson.
Studies have shown that many wind power companies have difficulty turning a profit, resulting in bankruptcies.
Who will build wind power if the economy goes into recession?
The market situation in northern Sweden is the most pressured. Projects there often have a tougher time being profitable right now because the electricity surplus there is the largest, since several electricity-intensive projects have been delayed, says Anton Johansson.
It's important to remember this is a 35- to 40-year investment. So the current situation will not be representative of the investment's overall profitability profile, he continues.
