There is little evidence that the US would completely leave NATO. Mike Winnerstig, head of the Euro-Atlantic Security Policy Unit at the Swedish National Defense Research Institute (FOI), points out that the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 report does not argue for a withdrawal. Instead, it wants to focus on nuclear deterrence against Russia rather than conventional combat forces in Europe.
The reason for this is that Russia is perceived as not being a threat to Europe at the moment. Therefore, American soldiers are not needed on the ground, while it is important to maintain nuclear deterrence.
A conceivable scenario is then that NATO is retained as an alliance, but that Europeans gradually take over command positions and provide almost all the conventional troops in Europe.
Nuclear weapons issue
Nuclear weapons are a central part of NATO's deterrent function and Jacob Westberg, associate professor of war science at the Swedish National Defense University, says most of the evidence points to the US staying put.
Otherwise, there is an enormous amount that the European NATO members have to compensate for. France and the UK have about one-tenth of Russia's warheads.
The major economic cost will be to replace the military capabilities that the United States contributes directly and indirectly.
They are enormous. But an almost equally big problem is the time it takes to create these resources. What is common to the defense decisions in the Nordic countries, except for Finland, is that deliveries will come in the mid-2030s.
Fear and anxiety
It will also be difficult for European countries to make up for the US's ability to deter through its sheer size.
The anxiety that Putin must feel about coming into direct confrontation with the United States is difficult to compensate for.
As an alternative, Jacob Westberg sees a larger military presence, something that becomes a challenge when most European countries, like Sweden, have significantly reduced their defenses since the Cold War.
It is then necessary for the European NATO countries to become better at talking to each other about focusing on protecting external borders rather than national ones.
Mike Winnerstig points out that what is happening is politically determined rather than militarily strategic.
For various reasons, Trump is irritated with several European countries, and he could consider different measures: either withdrawing troops outright or relocating soldiers from countries he doesn't like, such as Germany, France and Spain, to countries he prefers, such as Poland and the Baltic states.
