The stage is almost set for US President Donald Trump to appear successful when NATO's heads of state and government gather in The Hague, Netherlands in just over three weeks.
Trump has been pushing hard for increased defense spending and seems to be rewarded. Everything suggests that the member countries will agree to allocate at least the equivalent of 5 percent of their GDP to defense - albeit divided into 3.5 percent in traditional defense spending and 1.5 percent in other things that can be of military use.
–I would think that the probability is high. Of course, not everything is finished yet and I have respect for the ongoing process, but the fact that one will refer to 5 percent at the NATO summit is a clear signal that we have received, says Defense Minister Pål Jonson (The Moderate Party).
What should be included?
A lot of the fine print remains anyway. Not least, it's about what should be counted in the 1.5 percent bag.
Necessary infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and railways is more self-evident.
At the same time, there are reports that, for example, Spain wants to include investments in climate measures and that Germany would like to include funding for TV and radio broadcasts.
–Measures linked to civil preparedness and civil defense can very well be affected by this type of measure. An intensive work is underway now to interpret these 1.5 percent, says Jonson.
Unclear timeline
The timeline is also being discussed. Can one get all countries to reach the right percentage figure already by 2030, despite the fact that some still have not reached the current target of 2 percent?
Countries in Russia's vicinity are pushing for faster steps.
–We have 4 percent for defense this year and will have 5.5 percent for the next five years from 2026. We know that Russia does not care about our declarations and papers, but only hard military power - and that means money, says Lithuania's Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene on her way to a meeting with the so-called Ramstein group of countries that support Ukraine militarily.
She accuses Europe's richer countries of "procrastinating".
–Is it so hard to understand that it doesn't matter how much you invest if it's too late? For a cancer patient, it's not important if he gets help in two or three years. Then he will be dead. He needs treatment now, says the Lithuanian in Brussels.
