"Nine out of ten trains on time" was the message when the Swedish Transport Administration presented earlier this year the preliminary statistics on passenger train punctuality for last year.
However, it is a truth with some modification, according to Carl-William Palmqvist, who is a senior lecturer at Lund University.
What the numbers show and how the numbers are presented are slightly different things. They announced that almost nine out of ten trains run on time as if that were a good thing. But punctuality remains at a rock-bottom level, he says.
“Doesn’t get dark”
In recent years, cancelled trains have not been included in the official statistics. This has attracted some criticism, admits Thomas Andersson, head of unit at the Swedish Transport Administration.
"Of course we are not hiding any figures. But when it comes to the cancelled trains, we have had technical limitations for a period of time when it comes to obtaining reliable figures," he says.
At the same time, we know that cancelled trains also affect travelers, so we are working hard both to improve the statistics and to reduce the number of cancelled departures.
Starting Thursday, when the Traffic Analysis agency publishes its definitive statistics for 2025, urgently cancelled trains (trains cancelled less than 24 hours before departure) will be reported again.
However, the change itself does not play a big role, believes Carl-William Palmqvist.
In general, punctuality is too poor, and if you count the cancelled trains, it gets even worse, he says.
But I don't really think there's anything wrong with the punctuality measure itself, it's just that the level of ambition is too low.
“Positive trend”
The industry's long-term goal for passenger trains is a punctuality of 95 percent. Last year, according to preliminary statistics, it was 88.6 percent - and due to the weather chaos in January this year, only 85 percent of passenger trains arrived on time.
However, Thomas Andersson is still hopeful for the rest of the train year.
We are seeing a positive trend in punctuality, while we are running more trains and are also out maintaining and upgrading the infrastructure more than ever, he says.
There was a slight dip in the curve in the first half of January. But if we look at the whole picture, I hope the positive trend continues.
There are several different ways to measure train punctuality.
The Swedish Transport Administration uses the measure RT+5 (correct time + five minutes). This means that a train must have reached its final station no later than 5 minutes and 59 seconds after the scheduled time to be considered punctual.
Traffic Analysis, which publishes the official statistics, will also reintroduce STM (weighted reliability measure) as of Thursday.
STM includes all trains that have been operated as well as trains that have been cancelled urgently (i.e. trains that have been cancelled within 24 hours of their scheduled departure).
