Kärrholm writes that he believes it was a mistake for the Tidö government not to pause the granting of citizenship after the 2022 election, since up to 200,000 people have become Swedish citizens since then.
“The final election result is not yet clear, but with only around 30,000 votes separating the two blocs, such changes in the population could play a role,” he argues.
“Spectacular”
He believes that the results in several areas with many immigrants are "spectacular" and that the result in Rosengård, with over 90 percent support for S and V, "would have made Saddam Hussein jealous."
The Tidö government, which has successfully addressed problems with large-scale immigration, crime and too-low requirements for becoming a citizen, may be voted out as a result of the large previous immigration, Kärrholm claims.
May be important
SVT has spoken to researchers about whether it may be true that new citizens have decided the election. The polling station survey that SVT is conducting says that voters with a non-European background voted to a greater extent for the red-green parties. And the Left Party has made progress in several areas of exclusion. Mathematically, the votes may have great significance, but they are no proof that new citizens vote in a certain way. And some may not vote at all.
For the group born outside Europe, there are studies that indicate an advantage for parties that have been in opposition during this term of office. But the group that has just received citizenship is still a broader group than that, and comes from different backgrounds and regions, says economist Henrik Andersson at Uppsala University, who has studied voter turnout among people with an immigrant background, to SVT.
