No dramatic effects on the oil price are expected after this weekend's transformative developments in oil-rich Venezuela, according to Christian Kopfer, analyst at Handelsbanken.
"There are already disruptions to oil exports from Venezuela. Exports were already quite limited, maybe 1 percent of total world production. I would be surprised if something big happens," he says.
Plenty of capacity
The situation could change if the US attack and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday has "geopolitical domino effects," according to Kopfer. But right now, there is plenty of capacity in major oil-producing countries to cover reduced exports from Venezuela.
Donald Trump's plan is based on transforming socialist Venezuela into a close ally, with oil deals as the link.
"Our very large American oil companies, the largest in the world, are going to go in and spend many billions to fix the very broken infrastructure - the oil infrastructure - and start making money for the country," Trump said on Saturday.
The response from Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, was:
We will not become someone else's colony. What is being done to Venezuela is barbaric.
However, in talks with US Senator Marco Rubio this weekend, Rodríguez has already promised cooperation with the US, according to Trump:
She said, “We will do whatever you want.” She was quite grateful. But she really has no choice.
A pawn in a geopolitical game
Trump’s plan should primarily be seen as a pawn in the geopolitical game between the United States and China, according to Kopfer. But he thinks the plan looks realistic.
"If we get a US-friendly government in place in Caracas, it's all over," he says.
Some analysts, however, are skeptical.
"One thing that speaks against it is the price of oil," Ali Moshiri, former chief operating officer for Chevron in Latin America and Africa, told The Wall Street Journal.
The price fell by 16 percent to around $60 per barrel last year, which is slowing down oil companies' investments.
"This is not something that American oil companies will rush to," Schreiner Parker, an analyst at energy consultancy Rystad, told the Financial Times.
Doubling Venezuela's current oil production, to about two million barrels per day, would cost more than $100 billion, according to Parker.
