Mali's military junta has been plunged into crisis as militant Islamists and separatist Tuaregs join forces to challenge the regime. The attacks in late April were a severe blow to the junta that rules the country after two coups in 2020 and 2021.
Political instability and unrest have long characterized Mali, but the recent coordinated attacks and the geographical spread of the attacks are on a new scale.
The junta took power by claiming that civilians had been unable to handle the country's security crisis. With the junta in power, they were supposed to ensure that security was in place, says Gabriella Körling, a researcher at the Swedish National Defence Research Institute (FOI).
But the recent attacks have struck the capital, Bamako. The junta's defense minister, Sadio Camara, was killed in the attacks, and in the north, the Malian military's Russian-allied forces have been forced to leave the strategic city of Kidal.
Now the vulnerability is becoming so clear to everyone. The junta is not as strong and stable as it has wanted to emphasize. It became very clear that this happened all over the country. Otherwise you might hear about an attack somewhere, but this was also felt in Bamako, says Gabriella Körling.
Religious context
If the junta were to fall, the future is unclear. The jihadist groups that want to create an overarching caliphate in Mali are in constant flux. The jihadist group JNIM - which is today a major power player - is an amalgamation of several groups that have split, formed new constellations and changed names over the years.
In the major coordinated offensive against the military junta, JNIM joined forces with the Tuareg group FLA, which wants an independent state in northern Mali. But collaboration between militant Islamists and other groups is nothing new, points out Hans Brun, terror expert and chief analyst at Scandinavian Recruitment Intelligence (SRI).
It is this type of climate that jihadists, among others, are so adept at exploiting in weak state formations. Local political conflicts can be packaged in a religious context, he says.
But the different parts of the association have different ultimate goals.
"That's where I think there will be problems. Because pretty soon nationalist ideals, that is, wanting an independent Mali, will collide with these jihadist ambitions that are more international, more cross-border," says Hans Brun.
“Unstoppable energy”
Gabriella Körling believes that the groups might be able to combine their different end goals through agreements in the areas that they manage to take over.
JNIM is already present in some areas where they have developed a Sharia that the local population accepts. There it is not the extreme form but something that fits better into the local picture, she says.
But the big question is not who has control over which part of the country, but rather how the situation is perceived, says Hans Brun.
"You get a sense of unstoppable energy from this movement, that's where the problem lies. The question is whether the regular units have the strength to withstand this before people start defecting," he says.
French soldiers sent home
In August 2022, the withdrawal of French forces from Mali was completed. Instead, forces from the infamous Russian Wagner Group were brought in. They were later replaced by the so-called Africa Corps, which is controlled by the Russian government. The reason Mali did not want the French soldiers to remain was primarily control and sovereignty, says Gabriella Körling.
It's a narrative that the military regime has pushed very hard. They say the problem with the French operation was that it was France that led it and that Mali had little say in it. Then they brought in the Russians and could tell them to take Kidal back and they did. They couldn't tell France that.
Asking for help?
Kidal is one of several cities in northern Mali that the Tuareg Berber people, who are demanding autonomy, took control of in an uprising in 2012 with the support of then-jihadist groups. At that time, the government began a negotiation process with the Tuareg who wanted independence. In 2015, a peace agreement was signed with the predecessor of the current Tuareg group. However, the agreement was broken by the regime in 2024 and one of the junta's goals was to take back control of Kidal.
It was as if Mali was not “whole” because Kidal was still controlled by Tuareg rebels. They managed to take back control of Kidal in 2023, a great symbolic victory for the military regime, and you could say that Mali was whole again, says Gabriella Körling.
And now Kidal has fallen, which is symbolically important and also makes it strategically important.
For the junta, the latest attack is the biggest challenge so far during its years in power.
"I wouldn't be surprised if in the long term there is a political shift and they might ask the EU or France for help. It depends on who is sitting at the table. There could very well be internal changes within the junta in Mali," says Hans Brun.
Forces from the shadowy Wagner Group long carried out Russian missions in Africa. Their operations there have been taken over by soldiers from the Russian so-called Africa Corps.
They have been active primarily in the so-called “coup belt” in the southern Sahara. There have been Russian-backed military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, and in the Central African Republic, Russian forces are helping the incumbent government.
The governments of Chad and Equatorial Guinea have recently approached Russia.
Russian soldiers have taken over battles against jihadists in the Sahel that were previously fought by UN troops. There are reports of massacres and abuses. They are also reported to have guarded Russia's economic interests and conducted extensive propaganda.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have left the cooperation organization ECOWAS and the International Criminal Court (ICC). They have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which increasingly resembles a confederation with coordinated military power and common passports.
