Instead of growth of 2.6 percent this year, the European Commission now believes Sweden will grow 1.8 percent in 2026. Inflation in Sweden is now expected to be 1.5 percent, up from 0.6 percent previously forecast by the Commission.
For the entire EU, growth is downgraded from the previously expected 1.4 percent to 1.1 percent, and in the eurozone from 1.2 to 0.9 percent, compared with the autumn forecast in November.
"Energy shock"
The conflict in the Middle East has caused a severe energy shock, with a major impact on the European and global economy, Economic Affairs Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference in Brussels.
For the entire EU, inflation is now forecast at 3.1 percent in 2026 - a full percentage point more than the Commission forecast last fall.
Dombrovskis also called for crisis measures to be kept "temporary and targeted" and said he wants to see continued work to reduce EU countries' dependence on imported gas and oil.
Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M), for her part, took the opportunity to note that Swedish inflation is the lowest in the EU and that Swedish growth is above average.
"It allows us to support hard-working Swedes in a way many other EU countries wish they could," she wrote in a text message to TT.
High debt in Italy
In 2027, the European Commission expects overall growth of 1.4 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the eurozone and 2.2 percent for Sweden. Inflation next year is estimated at 2.4 percent in the entire EU and 1.8 percent in Sweden.
It is also noteworthy that the Commission now expects Italy to have the EU's largest government debt next year, equivalent to 139.2 percent of GDP. Greece - which has held the top spot for years - is then expected to have a debt of "only" 134.4 percent.
Estimated growth in EU countries in 2026 (with 2027 in brackets), as a percentage of GDP:
Malta: 3.7 (3.6)
Poland: 3.5 (2.8)
Lithuania: 3.0 (2.1)
Croatia: 2.7 (2.5)
Bulgaria: 2.5 (2.2)
Spain: 2.4 (1.9)
Cyprus: 2.3 (2.7)
Denmark: 1.9 (1.8)
Slovenia: 1.9 (2.3)
Sweden: 1.8 (2.2)
Greece: 1.8 (1.6)
Czech Republic: 1.8 (2.4)
Hungary: 1.8 (2.1)
Portugal: 1.7 (1.8)
Luxembourg: 1.6 (2.0)
Estonia: 1.6 (1.7)
Latvia: 1.4 (1.6)
Netherlands: 1.0 (1.1)
France: 0.8 (1.1)
Finland: 0.8 (1.4)
Slovakia: 0.8 (1.5)
Belgium: 0.7 (0.9)
Germany: 0.6 (0.9)
Austria: 0.6 (0.9)
Italy: 0.5 (0.6)
Romania: 0.1 (2.3)
Ireland: -1.2 (3.4)
EU-wide: 1.1 (1.4)
Eurozone: 0.9 (1.2)
Source: European Commission
