Instead of growth of 2.6 percent this year, the European Commission now expects 1.8 percent growth for Sweden in 2026. Inflation in Sweden is expected to be 1.5 percent, instead of 0.6 percent as the Commission previously expected.
For the entire EU, growth is downgraded from the previously expected 1.4 percent to 1.1 percent - and in the eurozone from 1.2 percent to 0.9 percent, compared with the autumn forecast from November.
“Energy shock”
“The conflict in the Middle East has caused a severe energy shock,” says Economic Affairs Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in a press release.
For the entire EU, inflation is now forecast at 3.1 percent in 2026 - a full percentage point higher than the Commission forecast last fall.
Dombrovskis is now calling for unity and determination.
“The EU must learn from past crises by keeping economic support temporary and targeted and further reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels,” Dombrovskis writes.
High debt in Italy
In 2027, the European Commission expects total growth of 1.4 percent, compared to 1.2 percent for the eurozone and 2.2 percent for Sweden. Inflation next year is estimated at 2.4 percent in the entire EU and 1.8 percent in Sweden.
It is also noteworthy that the Commission now expects Italy to have the EU's largest government debt next year, equivalent to 139.2 percent of GDP. Greece - which has held the top spot for years - is then expected to have a debt of "only" 134.4 percent.
Estimated growth in EU countries in 2026 (with 2027 in brackets), as a percentage of GDP:
Malta: 3.7 (3.6)
Poland: 3.5 (2.8)
Lithuania: 3.0 (2.1)
Croatia: 2.7 (2.5)
Bulgaria: 2.5 (2.2)
Spain: 2.4 (1.9)
Cyprus: 2.3 (2.7)
Denmark: 1.9 (1.8)
Slovenia: 1.9 (2.3)
Sweden: 1.8 (2.2)
Greece: 1.8 (1.6)
Czech Republic: 1.8 (2.4)
Hungary: 1.8 (2.1)
Portugal: 1.7 (1.8)
Luxembourg: 1.6 (2.0)
Estonia: 1.6 (1.7)
Latvia: 1.4 (1.6)
Netherlands: 1.0 (1.1)
France: 0.8 (1.1)
Finland: 0.8 (1.4)
Slovakia: 0.8 (1.5)
Belgium: 0.7 (0.9)
Germany: 0.6 (0.9)
Austria: 0.6 (0.9)
Italy: 0.5 (0.6)
Romania: 0.1 (2.3)
Ireland: -1.2 (3.4)
EU-wide: 1.1 (1.4)
Eurozone: 0.9 (1.2)
Source: European Commission
