President Donald Trump's stated goal in the US bombing of Iran is regime change, and this means that the Iranian government is currently fighting an existential struggle.
What we see is that they have attacked countries in the region that absolutely do not want to be involved in this. They will try to spread this conflict and the question is whether they are also going after American and Israeli targets in Europe through their "agents", or "proxies" as they are usually called, criminal networks and terrorist networks.
Increased threat
This could ultimately mean that the security situation in Sweden will also deteriorate and the risk of attacks and assassinations will increase.
Not directly aimed at Sweden, but at American and Israeli targets in Sweden. This could, for example, involve companies owned or controlled by Israel and the US or companies that do business with those countries.
Then we have the usual targets: embassies and organizations associated with these countries, says Hans Brun.
Hans Brun does not want to comment on whether the thousands of exiled Iranians in Sweden who are now following developments minute by minute have reason to be concerned, but he says that it is generally known that the Iranian government has a long reach and that they monitor opposition figures.
Säpo has been quite clear over the years in identifying Iran as one of the major security-policy problems in Sweden.
Uncertain future
The future for Iran could take several paths, says Hans Brun, drawing parallels to Syria.
One scenario is that Iran is drawn into some kind of Syria-like state with internal conflicts and chaotic power struggles.
However, if we get an Iranian government that is more democratically oriented - there are many well-educated people in Iran and in the Iranian diaspora, including in Sweden and the US, who could contribute to that work - it could mean a radically improved security situation, he says.
