A new report from SKR states that the proportion of the population aged 85 or older will increase by 60 percent over the next ten years. At the same time, around a quarter of those employed in elderly care in 2023 will retire in 2033.
If everything remained the same as in the forecast's base year, the number of employees in elderly care would need to increase by around 32 percent by 2033.
But in the report, SKR writes that elderly care is “in a time of change.” Those who are statistically considered elderly today are healthier than ten years ago.
We have had a fairly large increase in the elderly, but the need for elderly care has not increased as much, says Bodil Umegård, head of SKR's data and analysis section.
And what will happen in the future?
You can see how it has been, and we have also previously developed a scenario for this forecast where we looked at a lower proportion of older people using elderly care. In that scenario, the increase decreases to between 15 and 25 percent.
Working more
But SKR is fully aware that the need for staff in elderly care will increase as more people turn 85 or older. What is needed to cope with that? According to Bodil Umegård, a lot of it is about continuing to do what has been successful in recent years.
Firstly, we see that people are working more. There are 5,000 more people employed in elderly care since 2019, but if we look at the change in actual annual workers, it is 10,000, because more people are working full-time and more are also extending their working lives.
Elderly care lift
She also highlights the so-called elderly care lift, which was introduced in 2020 and means that employees in elderly care can further their education during paid working hours.
It also makes it possible that, even though it may be difficult to find nursing skills, you can take on people who start as care assistants and add to their skills.
Bodil Umegård continues:
Then you always have to keep in mind that things look very different across the country. In two out of three municipalities, the number of people of working age is decreasing, so things look different.
The number of people aged 85 or older will increase by 60 percent over the next ten years. At the same time, the number of people of working age will decrease in two out of three municipalities. By 2033, about a quarter of those employed in elderly care in 2023 will retire.
In elderly care, the number of employees would need to increase by around 32 percent by 2033, if nothing changes.
Since 2019, the number of employees in municipal elderly care has increased by just over 5,000 people.
Source: SKR
