Next week, new inflation figures for November are expected from Statistics Sweden (SCB). Handelsbanken has a clear inflation decline in its forecast compared to the previous month.
Inflation is expected to be 2.4 percent compared to 3.1 percent the previous month, according to the CPIF measure, that is, where the effects of mortgage interest rates have been removed.
However, there is a special reason for the fall, points out Johan Löf, forecast manager at Handelsbanken:
In November last year, electricity prices rose sharply. When we look at electricity prices now, there is an increase but not at all like last year. Then we get a so-called base effect and there is a decline in inflation, he says.
Even when energy prices are excluded, however, there is a decline, from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent.
"Inflation is slowing down a little more cautiously, but our view is that inflation will continue its downward journey. There are many conditions that indicate that it will fall," says Johan Löf.
Handelsbanken believes that the next step from the Riksbank is an increase rather than a decrease. The assessment is now that it will not occur until 2027.
