The external situation
Robert Bergqvist, senior economist at SEB, points out that a lot depends on geopolitics and how the global situation is developing. Recent years have clearly shown how difficult it can be for a government to navigate.
I would say they come to a set table, he points out, based on the fact that the economic situation is about to turn around.
But you won't have control over what happens in the outside world. This government and the one before it have faced external factors that I have never seen in my 40 years as an economist.
Robert Bergqvist mentions what he calls systemic challenges, ranging from security policy to the global trading system, which has been challenged by President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
I've probably been through about ten major crises, but they've been regional or industry-specific. The crises we're talking about now affect every country in the world. It's a climate crisis, and you could almost call Trump a systemic crisis because he affects the whole world.
Investments in AI and technology
Sweden has spent billions of dollars upgrading its defences during the last term. The challenge now is to do the same in technology and AI development, says Bergqvist:
There is no doubt that we cannot afford to sit still. We must act forcefully here to catch up with both the US and China.
Competitiveness
Susanne Spector, chief economist at Danske Bank, sees Swedish competitiveness as a major challenge for the next government.
China is taking market share in several areas where Sweden and Europe have been world leaders. China is also developing new products, not least solar cells and electric car batteries.
This is not just an issue for the Swedish government, but of course an issue for all of Europe, says Spector.
To ensure that both Sweden and Europe together are a strong force in an increasingly polarized world.
She also sees it as important for a future government to shift focus from short-term stimulus to a broad strategy to build Sweden up strongly.
We need to focus on the long-term issues.
Long-term
Like Susanne Spector, Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth points out the importance of long-term politics. She is critical of the parties' short-termism in the election campaign.
There have been a lot of questions about the wallet, and households have strong purchasing power. It would have been better if we had thought long-term about how we should equip Sweden when we are now facing such major challenges as we do.
Government debt
Sweden still has very strong public finances, points out Fredrik NG Andersson, an economist at Lund University, but he adds:
The government is borrowing a lot of money this year, still within EU rules, but we are probably breaking our own rules.
Fredrik NG Andersson points out that even though Sweden is violating the established framework, the situation is significantly more positive than for other countries such as France and Germany.
It's not a problem here and now, but we're on a slightly sloping plane. Then we have the defence buildup that costs a lot of money. If we're going to make a climate transition, it costs a lot of money, as does an ageing population. There are expenses ahead of us.
Swedish labor market
I would say that it is a big challenge for the following reason: Sweden has a labour market policy that requires those who do not have a job to actively seek a job. Many other countries have a labour market policy where those who are far from the labour market stop seeking, and are thus not counted as unemployed, says Fredrik NG Andersson.
He points out that those who have education and language skills have a relatively easy time finding a job.
Then we also have among the highest employment rates in Europe in terms of population. But we get these unemployed people because we don't have those simple jobs that don't require that much language knowledge.
