According to the bank's assessment, the conflict in the Middle East is slowing the global recovery, but the main scenario is that it will turn around this autumn.
"If uncertainty and the inflationary impulse ease, we see good opportunities for a recovery reminiscent of the one we saw after last year's tariff shock," says the bank's chief economist, Christina Nyman, in a press release.
The bank writes there is a risk that things will go the other way, with "significantly higher oil prices, a broader rise in inflation and interest rate increases despite a weaker economy."
