The first quarter is generally considered to have been a good quarter for listed companies, according to Lars Söderfjell.
About 7 percent higher profits for industrial companies. For the stock market as a whole, profits are expected to be on par with the same quarter last year, despite a stronger Swedish krona, he says.
"January and February were pretty good months for much of the industry. You could see that in the macro indicators - they were pointing upwards," he adds.
More uncertain than in a long time
But that turned downward in March and the outlook is currently more uncertain than it has been in a long time due to the conflict in the Middle East. Energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped and there are fears that even more energy facilities and infrastructure in the countries around the Persian Gulf will be destroyed if the war continues.
The winds of war have already thrown the market both up and down. The so-called P/E ratio - that is, the price divided by next year's profit - for OMXS30 shares in Stockholm fell 10 percent in March, according to Söderfjell.
Companies selling consumer durables and consumer goods were the worst hit, but the automotive industry has also taken a hit. However, sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications operators have fared "fairly well".
And finance has done well too: banks and insurance companies. They are relatively insulated from what's happening there, at least in the short term.
The broad S&P 500 index on Wall Street fell 8 percent in March, but it has turned sharply upward in early April.
Cheaper dollar
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 index is down 0.4 percent, while the oil and gas companies in the S&P Global Oil Index have gained 28 percent. The Stockholm Stock Exchange's OMXS30 index is up 7.8 percent.
The flood of reports on Wall Street is expected to show that sales increased by about 10 percent during the quarter, with profit growth of just over 13 percent. In the IT sector, a profit increase of as much as 45 percent is expected, according to the research institute FactSet.
Traction comes, among other things, from the fact that the US dollar is significantly weaker this year than at the beginning of 2025. This is particularly evident for tech companies, which earn more from their sales outside the US when the dollar weakens.
For Swedish export companies, the effect is the opposite. A weaker dollar causes much of their sales abroad to lose value.
The reporting season has already kicked off. Here are the most important highlights to look forward to:
Monday, April 13: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday, April 14: JP Morgan Chase & Co, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup
Thursday, April 16: TSMC, Netflix
Friday, April 17: Ericsson
Tuesday, April 21: Investor, Getinge, SKF, General Electric, Northrop Grumman, Halliburton
Wednesday, April 22: Nordea, ABB, Handelsbanken, Tele2, Evolution, Sandvik, Alfa Laval, Tesla
Thursday, April 23: Essity, Saab, Dassault Systemes, Lockheed Martin, SAP, Intel
Friday, April 24: Telia, AB Volvo, Yara International
Tuesday, April 28: Boliden, Assa Abloy, Securitas, Atlas Copco, Spotify, Norwegian, Airbus, Meta/Facebook
Wednesday, April 29: Volvo Cars, SEB, Swedbank, Vattenfall, Traton/Scania, AstraZeneca, Mercedes-Benz Group, Ford Motor, Microsoft, Alphabet/Google
Thursday, April 30: Volkswagen, Stellantis, Caterpillar, Apple
Wednesday, May 6: Ørsted, BMW, Daimler Truck Holdings, Novo Nordisk, Infineon Technologies
Thursday, May 7: Sinch, AP Møller-Mærsk, Shell
Tuesday, May 19: Nibe Industries
Wednesday, May 20: Orkla, Nvidia
