Generally, it's better than feared, so far, says Lars Söderfjell about all interim reports.
But everyone emphasizes the uncertainty. And you can't get away from it. Now it depends on what happens after the 90-day tariff pause and if there are any trade agreements, he adds.
"Some relief"
The market seems to be making the same interpretation. The Stockholm stock exchange has risen by almost 4 percent since the reporting season started on April 14.
However, the increase has been made with very shaky steps – up and down – with both rallies and crashes after strong reports and report misses. And it's still minus 12 percent since the peak in February.
The upward trend is primarily due to signs that US President Donald Trump has begun to open up for retreat regarding the worst tariffs – and also toned down his attacks on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
"The stock market rise is primarily driven by reduced concern over the trade war due to positive signals from the US. A fairly mixed reporting period overall, but maybe some relief that tariff-related problems are not described as major", writes SEB's equity strategist Esbjörn Lundevall in an email to TT.
He agrees with Söderfjell that the main impression is great uncertainty in the companies' communication right now.
"Those who are really squeezed are those who have manufacturing in China for sale in the US, either they are directly exposed to this or if their customers have such a structure", writes Lundevall.
The economic upswing that was expected early this year is missing, according to Lundevall.
"But it's not as bad as the stock market indicated at the beginning of April either".
The effects are expected to be negative
The reporting season is well underway, but far from over. For example, neither Swedish major banks nor pharmaceutical companies like Astra Zeneca have spoken yet. The reports from the real heavyweights on Wall Street – such as Apple and Microsoft – have not come yet either.
And Söderfjell is urging caution when it comes to stocks right now.
We have reduced our allocation to stocks. We did that already in March, he says.
We believe that the effects on the world economy will still be negative, and that may not be fully reflected in the market's expectations yet, he adds.
The flow of reports from listed companies has been going on for two weeks now, a bit too long. There's still some left to look at to get the whole picture of the situation.
The three Swedish major banks, Scania-owner Traton, and Volvo Cars are some of those whose reports the market is waiting for now – and several tech giants on Wall Street will also report this week.
Here is a small checklist for the coming weeks' reports:
Monday, April 28: Wallenstam, Wihlborgs Fastigheter, Traton/Scania, Ford Motor
Tuesday, April 29: SEB, Swedbank, Volvo Cars, SSAB, Astra Zeneca, Electrolux, Betsson, NCC, Vattenfall, Atlas Copco, Alfa Laval, Nobia, Scandi Standard, Spotify, Deutsche Bank, Adidas, BP, General Motors, Paypal, Pfizer, Coca-Cola
Wednesday, April 30: Handelsbanken, Evolution, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Microsoft
Thursday, May 1: Lundin Mining, McDonald's, Amazon, Apple
Friday, May 2: BASF, Shell
Tuesday, May 6: Zalando, Castellum, Peab
Wednesday, May 7: Skanska, Cloetta, Loomis, Attendo, BMW
Thursday, May 8: Securitas, Balder, Academedia, Sinch, Holmen
Tuesday, May 13: SSB
Thursday, May 15: Nibe Industrier, Bure
Friday, May 16: Synsam
Thursday, May 22: Embracer
