On Sunday morning, one dollar cost 8.92 kronor. This compares with 9.41 kronor three months ago and just over 11 kronor a year ago.
The sharp decline has been ongoing for some time and gained further momentum when President Donald Trump recently said the decline was only good for the United States.
Historically, however, these are not remarkable price levels, SEB's chief economist Jens Magnusson reminds.
Now we talk a lot about the super-strong krona, but it is not super strong; it was super weak and now it is a little more in line with historical averages, he says.
Pale image
In a recently published economic forecast, SEB estimates that the strengthening of the krona will not continue at the same pace in 2026. In December this year, one dollar is expected to cost 8.78 kronor. The recent development could not have been taken into account when the report was written, but Jens Magnusson highlights another aspect:
This development is rarely linear, so the dollar can actually bounce back a little bit as well. Maybe it will be mostly sideways for the rest of the year and there will be no very clear continued dollar weakening.
Danske Bank has a similar estimate:
We have a 12-month forecast of SEK 8.94, says the bank's chief economist Susanne Spector.
Flat development
Given recent developments, can you stick to that forecast?
There are no guarantees with currency forecasts, but I think a fairly flat development over a twelve-month period is a reasonable assessment.
However, for Swedish households hoping that a weakening dollar will have an effect on food prices, for example, there is not much to gain.
We import most consumer goods from euro countries, so the euro is slightly more important than the dollar, points out Susanne Spector.
