Trump claims to have all the time in the world as he once again pushes forward deadlines he himself set, with threats to bomb Iran to pieces.
The passing of time only benefits one side, says Fredrik Meiton, head of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs.
"Iran has always used time as a strategic weapon. Even now, Iran is the beneficiary of a protracted conflict," he says.
That's definitely how they see it, and it seems to be how the Americans see it too. They are much more stressed about getting some kind of solution than Iran is.
"High pain threshold"
Following the announcement that the deadline and talks are being postponed, the US president has tried to hammer home a message that a divided Iran is being drained of money and is about to collapse.
In the short to medium term, however, it does not pose any threat to the Shia regime's grip on power, which has long been burdened by sanctions, Fredrik Meiton believes.
"They have a very high pain threshold, so they can endure these economic hardships for quite a long time," he says, describing it as further away than Trump has time to wait.
Opposite effect
Donald Trump wants to make a "deal." He raises the stakes with violent threats, but the parties at the other table are calling. Oil prices are skyrocketing and the stock markets are shaking.
He therefore hopes, somewhat unrealistically, that if he maintains the pressure on the Iranian regime and escalates the threats, they will eventually give in, says Fredrik Meiton.
But Meiton believes that it will have the opposite effect: that the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard will increasingly close ranks around their basic demands. He also sees it as highly unlikely that the US and Israel would be able to remotely bomb Iran into compliance.
Difficult to sell
Meiton believes that Donald Trump then only has two options left: a ground invasion or a new nuclear energy agreement.
Putting troops on the ground in Iran is risky, likely to prolong the war, and is politically highly sensitive in the US. If a new nuclear deal is reached with Iran, Trump needs to be able to claim that it is better than the previous agreement from 2015, which he himself tore up and has for years condemned as a disaster.
How fast is he?
"I think he's in a big hurry. He'll have time to get this conflict settled and people will have time to at least partially forget about it in time for the midterm elections this fall."
In 2015, the nuclear energy agreement JCPOA was signed between Iran and the "P5+1" – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (France, China, the UK, Russia and the US) plus Germany.
Iran would only be allowed to enrich a certain amount of uranium to a relatively low purity, far from that required for nuclear weapons, but sufficient for civilian purposes. The outside world would also be given greater transparency. In exchange, sanctions would be lifted, with the goal of all being lifted after ten years, by October 2025.
In 2018, US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the agreement and impose stricter sanctions. Iran responded by stepping up its enrichment and stockpiles of uranium.
In recent years of escalation and conflict, the US has demanded that Iran stop enriching uranium altogether. Iran objects that all countries that have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty have the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
