The United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement during peace talks in Pakistan this weekend. The parties are reported to be too far apart on several issues, particularly those related to nuclear technology and the Strait of Hormuz. But there has been no word yet on whether the previously announced two-week ceasefire will be broken.
For the United States, there are only bad options going forward, says Fredrik Meiton, program director for the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs.
"If the US broadens its targets, Iran may do so too," he says.
It is likely that further rounds of talks will be attempted in the coming days - but it is unlikely that they will turn out well, he says.
Withdraw or fight
Apart from negotiations, the US has two choices: it can either withdraw from the conflict and claim that it has achieved its goals - which is a hard sell, according to Meiton. Or it can expand its targets in line with the threats expressed by President Donald Trump, such as striking Iranian infrastructure.
But it would likely receive a harsh response.
"Iran has been holding back some aces up its sleeve that it would probably play. It could activate the Houthis, who could block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would have repercussions for the global economy at least as great as closing the Strait of Hormuz."
A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, would also be more critical for Sweden and Europe, says Meiton.
The fact that expectations are low for continued negotiations between the US and Iran is partly due to both parties feeling that they have come into a "position of strength" that allows them to demand concessions, he points out.
Continued conversations?
However, Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Swedish National Defense Research Institute, does not believe that the prospect of negotiations should be written off yet.
But a settlement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is said to be one of the most difficult points - as everyone involved wants something different: the US wants the strait opened and Iran wants sanctions relief.
"There is no way to solve this in 24 hours or even 24 days, I think. Therefore, it is a question of whether we can get urgent preliminary agreements and frameworks, as they themselves say, to be able to extend the ceasefire and then negotiate further," says Lund.
