I would say that the Christian Democrats have won the election, but have still underperformed, says Maria Thürk, assistant lecturer in political science at Uppsala University, when the first exit poll was published.
According to the poll, CDU/CSU gets 29 percent of the votes, while in the autumn it seemed like they would get up to 35 percent, according to Thürk.
The party still appears to be taking on the role of Chancellor – but it is still uncertain what the coalition will look like.
Depends on whether they clear the threshold
One of the biggest losers is the Liberal FDP, which together with the conservative BSW is below the 5 percent threshold. According to Thürk, their fate is crucial for coalition formation. If both or only one of the parties clears the threshold, a government consisting only of CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic SDP will not have enough mandates.
Then they will need either the Liberals or the Greens as well.
If they (FDP and BSW) do not get in, it should be enough with two parties, CDU/CSU and SDP, for a coalition government, says Thürk, adding that it would simplify and speed up the process of forming a government and possibly be more stable.
Largest loser
SPD – which was the largest party in the previous election – gets 16 percent, making them the third largest party and, according to Thürk, the election's loser.
This is the first time in German history that the Social Democrats do not become at least the second largest party, she says.
At the same time, the nationalist AFD gets 19.5 percent according to the prognosis, which is almost double compared to the previous election.
They will be satisfied in any case as the second largest party, says Thürk, but emphasizes that they will not have any influence over government formation.
The Green Party Die Grünen is the only party that has been part of the previous government coalition that does not experience drastic losses, according to Thürk.
High voter turnout
Valentin Kreilinger, political scientist at the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (Sieps), notes a significant change in how Germans have voted compared to previous elections.
This is quite unusual in German politics on this scale, he says.
At the same time, the voter turnout is the highest in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.
I think it is in line with the current international geopolitical situation. In such a context, participation always increases, says Kreilinger, adding that the disappointment with the previous government, together with a polarized – "partly aggressive" – election campaign, has mobilized voters.
