The recovery in the labor market is expected to be slower than what the Employment Service previously calculated. This is evident from the authority's latest report on labor market prospects. The latest report came in December.
The biggest difference since then is that we have had a fairly large uncertainty in the global economy during the spring. It is linked to trade barriers and tariffs, but also to increased uncertainty in several of the conflicts we have in the world, says Emil Persson, analyst at the Employment Service.
Holding on to the wallet
In December, the authority calculated that unemployment would be 6.9 percent in 2025 and then decrease to 6.6 percent in 2026. Now the figure is 7 percent for this year and 6.8 percent next year. In 2024, unemployment was 6.8 percent.
The uncertainty means that we expect the economy to be further dampened this year, and that the recovery in the labor market will take a little longer, says Emil Persson.
The uncertainty means that both households and companies are holding extra tight to the wallet, according to him.
It is in the metropolitan regions that the labor market is most affected by the recession. This is because housing prices are highest there.
Brightening comes
When interest rates have increased, it is in the metropolitan regions that it has been most noticeable. In addition, industries within the private service sector are a larger part of the labor market in metropolitan regions than in rural areas, says Emil Persson.
When interest rates go down, the recovery is noticed first in the big cities. And the recovery is on its way, believes the Employment Service, just a little later than what the authority's analysts calculated in December.
We see a brightening on the horizon. The underlying factors, that the interest rate situation has come down and that we have a significantly lower inflation, which means that we have a real wage increase, mean that the consumption space increases. Gradually, both households and companies get more money to move around with, says Emil Persson.
