Despite an urgent need to reduce emissions to slow down climate change, there is no indication that the world has reached a peak in emissions, according to a new report – which becomes another warning to world leaders at this year's climate meeting.
When the international research project Global Carbon Project publishes its annual review of emission levels, the outlook looks bleak. Including carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation, it is established that total emissions will rise to 41.6 billion tons in 2024, which is 0.8 percent more than in 2023.
No signs of a peak
“The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, but despite this, we see no signs that the burning of fossil fuels has reached its peak", says Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
But there are glimmers of hope. Several countries have managed to slow down their carbon dioxide emissions. However, the authors note, before we reach a net-zero level of carbon dioxide emissions globally, temperatures will continue to rise and have devastating consequences.
The fact that Europe achieved emission reductions of 8.3 percent last year shows that it is possible to make real progress. Sweden's emission increase this year, on the other hand, is a reminder that we cannot afford to relax when it comes to our climate goals, says Wendy Broadgate, global operations manager for the research network Future Earth in Sweden. Global Carbon Project is a research project within Future Earth.
India increases emissions
The USA, which accounts for 13 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, is expected to reduce them by 0.6 percent compared to 2023, according to the report. India, on the other hand, which accounts for 8 percent, will increase its emissions by 4.6 percent. In China, which is responsible for 32 percent globally, there are signs that the curve is flattening out, but emissions are still expected to increase by 0.6 percent.
The researchers behind the report have also calculated scenarios for achieving the so-called 1.5-degree target for global warming – a limit that the Earth is feared to have already exceeded according to the latest measurements. The report's conclusion still leaves some hope: if we continue at the current emission rate, there is a 50 percent risk that the limit will be definitively exceeded in just over six years.
