Despite the upper hand: "No idea" about the path to victory

A crushing military superiority – but still not even close to any kind of real victory. This is how Israel's warfare against targets in Lebanon is summarized over the past two weeks. The rocket units are still active, Hezbollah has absorbed the first shock and the battle has only just begun, says former militia member Qassim Qassir to the news agency AP.

» Published: September 27 2024

Despite the upper hand: "No idea" about the path to victory
Photo: Baz Ratner/AP/TT

That it was actually a shock has also been acknowledged in principle by Hizbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah. First, the attacks via personsökare and walkie-talkies, which surprised the whole world and are generally seen as Israel's doing. And then massive air strikes against Lebanon, which this week may have cost more than half the number of lives lost during the entire devastating war in 2006.

But how much closer is Israel to its goals? Perhaps the most important domestic political issue is that 60,000 Israelis in the northern border areas, who were evacuated due to previous hostilities, should be able to return home. And that is not even on the map at present, according to many assessors.

"Worst week"

"No one, inside or outside the defense establishment, has any idea how these brilliant operational successes will be translated into political gain, into a real victory that stops the war in the north," writes columnist Nadav Eyal in Yediot Ahronot, Israel's largest newspaper.

"As long as Hizbollah retains its firepower, the northern border will not return to normal."

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claims that this firepower has now been significantly curbed.

This is Hizbollah's worst week since its founding, he said the other day.

Blows have been dealt to the command, to the terrorists on several levels, to their firepower and to their morale.

"Only a fraction"

On the other hand, Israel estimated around the 2006 war that the extremist Islamist movement had around 12,000 projectiles of various kinds. The same estimate this year has risen to 150,000 – and many of the rockets and drones are newer, larger, and more advanced than before. Via land routes through Syria, the group's powerful ally Iran has been able to deliver fairly unhindered over the years.

No one believes that Israel has managed to hit any significant parts of this arsenal.

Hizbollah has only used a fraction of its capabilities, says Qassim Qassir, a former member of the movement, now a writer who has published a book on its development from the 80s to the present.

Compare with Vietnam

So even if the Islamists are now under pressure, time may be working for them. The 2006 war can be said to have ended "inconclusively", but since then Hizbollah has been able to ignore many of the previous demands. The ceasefire agreement stipulated, among other things, that the movement would be disarmed, and that the border area – all south of the Litani River – would be demilitarized. Instead, Hizbollah is now believed to be more ready than ever on its home turf if Israel were to dare a new ground invasion.

Regarding the prospects for such an invasion, Daniel Byman at the think tank CSIS in Washington tells The Wall Street Journal:

It would be like saying to the US in 1980: "We're going back into Vietnam again".

Tags

TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

Sperm Whale Found Dead on
1 MIN READ

Sperm Whale Found Dead on Danish Beach Near Aarhus

Argentina Opens Secret Files on
1 MIN READ

Argentina Opens Secret Files on Nazi Refugees and Their Financiers

Suspected Worst Rapist in UK
1 MIN READ

Suspected Worst Rapist in UK History Faces New Allegations

Liberal Judge Susan Crawford Wins
1 MIN READ

Liberal Judge Susan Crawford Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Seat

Man Rescued Alive in Myanmar
1 MIN READ

Man Rescued Alive in Myanmar Five Days After Earthquake

Israel Intensifies Gaza Offensive, Targets
2 MIN READ

Israel Intensifies Gaza Offensive, Targets Southern Regions

Frederiksen Visits Greenland as Concerns
2 MIN READ

Frederiksen Visits Greenland as Concerns Over US Interest Persist

China Conducts Extensive Military Drills
1 MIN READ

China Conducts Extensive Military Drills Near Taiwan's Coast

White House Evaluates Economic Impact
2 MIN READ

White House Evaluates Economic Impact of Potential Greenland Acquisition

WWII Codebreaker Charlotte Webb, Honored
2 MIN READ

WWII Codebreaker Charlotte Webb, Honored by Queen, Dies at 101

Russian Envoy Dmitrijev to Meet
1 MIN READ

Russian Envoy Dmitrijev to Meet US Officials in Washington Talks

Genre image
1 MIN READ

Russian Drone Strikes in Ukraine Leave One Dead, Injure Several

Cory Booker's 25-Hour Senate Speech
3 MIN READ

Cory Booker's 25-Hour Senate Speech Sets Record in Trump Protest

Trump Adviser Faces Scrutiny Over
2 MIN READ

Trump Adviser Faces Scrutiny Over Private Email Use in Security Role

Zelenskyj Seeks Support for Potential
1 MIN READ

Zelenskyj Seeks Support for Potential Peacekeeping Forces in Ukraine

Denmark Sets 18-Year Age Limit
1 MIN READ

Denmark Sets 18-Year Age Limit for High-Alcohol Drinks

Le Pen Awaits Appeal Verdict
2 MIN READ

Le Pen Awaits Appeal Verdict on 2027 Election Ban Next Summer

Fourth Missing US Soldier Found
1 MIN READ

Fourth Missing US Soldier Found Dead in Lithuania

Russian Advances in Eastern Ukraine
1 MIN READ

Russian Advances in Eastern Ukraine Slow for Fourth Month

Bird Flu Outbreak Hits Danish
1 MIN READ

Bird Flu Outbreak Hits Danish Farm, 24 Chickens Culled

23 States Sue Trump Administration
2 MIN READ

23 States Sue Trump Administration Over Health Funding Cuts

Europol Set for Expansion in
1 MIN READ

Europol Set for Expansion in New EU Security Strategy

Search Continues for Missing Plane
1 MIN READ

Search Continues for Missing Plane in Norway with Two Feared Dead

Trump's First Foreign Trip as
1 MIN READ

Trump's First Foreign Trip as President: Saudi Arabia and Beyond

Danish Police Arrest 10 Bandidos
1 MIN READ

Danish Police Arrest 10 Bandidos Gang Members at Sejet Inn

German EU Politician Faces Probe
1 MIN READ

German EU Politician Faces Probe Over Controversial Nazi Greeting Post

EU Eyes Boosting Eastern Infrastructure
1 MIN READ

EU Eyes Boosting Eastern Infrastructure for Defense and Development

23 States Sue Trump Administration
2 MIN READ

23 States Sue Trump Administration Over $11 Billion Health Cuts

Israel Sets Record for Palestinian
3 MIN READ

Israel Sets Record for Palestinian Home Demolitions in West Bank

Red Cross Faces Deadliest Attack
2 MIN READ

Red Cross Faces Deadliest Attack in Eight Years During Gaza Conflict

Georgia Approves US-Inspired Agent Law
1 MIN READ

Georgia Approves US-Inspired Agent Law After Criticism

Scottish Fisherman Missing Since 2021
1 MIN READ

Scottish Fisherman Missing Since 2021 Identified on Norwegian Coast

Ukraine Election Preparations Denied by
1 MIN READ

Ukraine Election Preparations Denied by Zelenskyj's Party Leader

Genre image
1 MIN READ

Norwegian Man Gets Life for Murdering Finnish Hockey Star Janne Puhakka

Denmark Sees Highest Wolf Population
1 MIN READ

Denmark Sees Highest Wolf Population in Modern History

USA and Ukraine Resume Talks
1 MIN READ

USA and Ukraine Resume Talks on Key Mineral Agreement

Finland Prepares to Exit Ottawa
1 MIN READ

Finland Prepares to Exit Ottawa Treaty on Personal Mines

Denmark Boosts Defense with 130
1 MIN READ

Denmark Boosts Defense with 130 New Armored Vehicles from Finland

Media Worker Killed in Gaza
1 MIN READ

Media Worker Killed in Gaza as Evacuations Ordered in the North

Palestinian Teen Dies in Israeli
2 MIN READ

Palestinian Teen Dies in Israeli Prison After Six Months Without Charge