Economist: Strong US jobs data could give the Fed breathing space

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Economist: Strong US jobs data could give the Fed breathing space
Photo: Steven Senne AP/TT

The dollar, interest rates and stock markets are rising after an unexpectedly strong US jobs report for January. But one should be careful not to draw too strong a conclusion from a single month, says Elisabet Kopelman, US economist at SEB. January figures are shaky, she says.

The delayed report shows that 130,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in the US in January, twice as many as expected.

The dollar immediately strengthened by five öre, and the Stockholm Stock Exchange moved above the zero line after the figures. The same positive reaction was seen in Wall Street futures.

We have some signs that the economy is showing positive signals in various indicators, says Elisabet Kopelman.

Weak demand

US bond yields are also rising, while pricing now points to a US policy rate cut in July, instead of June - which had been expected before the jobs figures.

The January figure may give the US Federal Reserve (Fed) further support to wait a little longer before a possible interest-rate cut:

"What we see is that there is weak demand for labor. But it also doesn't seem like companies are shedding a lot of people either," says Kopelman.

Tough for households

Unemployment in January fell to 4.3 percent, compared to the expected 4.4 percent.

It's a tough labor market that many households face. And when the labor force grows more slowly, you should also expect demand in the economy to grow more slowly, says Kopelman, adding:

It's a labor market that's very flat.

The jobs figures for January were supposed to be published last Friday, but were postponed due to a partial shutdown of the US government.

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By TT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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