China's Emission Reduction Pledge Criticized as Vague and Unambitious

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China's Emission Reduction Pledge Criticized as Vague and Unambitious
Photo: Ng Han Guan/AP/TT

China promises to cut emissions. The new promises are positive – but too vague and unambitious, according to several experts. We had hoped for more, says Lauri Myllyvirta who follows the green transition in China.

China's president Xi Jinping promised via video link to the UN General Assembly that the country will reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035.

This happens in sharp contrast to the US President Donald Trump, who previously urged countries to stop their climate efforts, which he described as a big scam.

Guoyi Han, a China expert at the Stockholm Environment Institute, says that China's attitude was welcome after "Trump's catastrophic comments".

China sees climate change as a common challenge and is willing to make the transition. In that way, China is a very positive force, he says.

Step forward

The share of fossil-free energy in energy consumption should exceed 30 percent, wind and solar power should reach 3,600 gigawatts, and the main stream of new vehicle sales should be renewable.

Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air says it's a step forward. At the same time, the goals are low.

The goals for vehicles have already been largely achieved, and the expansion of wind and solar power can even decrease. Just last year, 360 gigawatts were added.

A 30 percent reduction in emissions is possible based on current policy and positive trends.

Myllyvirta believes that the hardest thing for China will be to handle the domestic coal industry.

These conservative goals show that China's leadership has not decided to seriously phase out the country's coal industry, which is of course an inevitable consequence of the current green energy boom.

Does not meet environmental targets

Anders Hove, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, would have preferred to see renewable electricity account for a certain share of total production, instead of a capacity target. He would also have liked to see percentage targets for electric vehicles.

It would have been a signal to the domestic industry that they should continue to increase the share of electric cars and phase out combustion engines, as well as to the rest of the world that the transition to electric cars is unstoppable, he says.

Experts agree that the promises are not in line with the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target.

Guyoi Han says that cautious promises are typical of China, which has several times previously overperformed.

The goals could have been more ambitious, but I interpret it as that they follow their tradition of not wanting to promise anything they are not absolutely sure they can deliver.

Gustav Sjöholm/TT

Fact: China's emissions and promises

TT

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases with around 16 million gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalents, approximately 30 percent of the world's total emissions. China promises in its updated climate plan (NDC) to:

reduce emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035 from the emission peak. But when that peak is set is not specified.

increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30 percent.

try to reach 3,600 gigawatts of solar and wind power (at the end of 2024, the figure was 1,400, an increase of 360).

increase the total timber volume in forests to 24 billion cubic meters (up from 20 last year).

make non-fossil fuel-driven vehicles the main stream (already today, half of the cars sold are electric).

expand domestic emissions trading to include all high emitters.

Source: China's government, EU's emission database Edgar

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